NFL Lines Week 1
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)
The defending champs (damn you Santio Holmes) open up their title defense against one of last year’s surprising teams. For the Titans, I see two questions heading into the season. The first being whether Kerry Collins can repeat his performance, especially with a still below average receiving group. Another is the loss of space-eating DT Albert Haynesworth. Pittsburgh is essentially returning the same team that won the super bowl and is hungry to get back on the field and start hitting again. While 6.5 is a lot of points to be giving, I still like Pittsburgh to win by 7 or 8.
Prediction: Tennessee 16 – Pittsburgh 24
Actual: Tennessee 10 – Pittsburgh 13 (L)
Denver @ Cincinnati (-4)
There is quite a few things to be hopeful for in Cincinnati. The primary thing is a healthy Carson Palmer. However, there are a few question marks on offense for the Bungles. How focused is Ochocinco? Has Chris Henry put his legal troubles behind him and is he ready to replace TJ? Will Cedric Benson run like he did at the end of last year or fall back to his Chicago days? Finally, does the hiring of Mike Zimmer really improve the D? For Denver, can Kyle Orton/Chris Simms run an offense for 4 quarters? How healthy is Moreno? Will Brandon Marshall shut up and play? With both teams afraid of playing defense I think the over (42.5) might be the safest best in this game. I don’t like Denver this year but we are talking about the Bengals and 4 points is just too much for them to be giving another team.
Prediction: Denver 27 – Cincinnati 24
Actual: Denver 12 – Cincinnati 7 (W)
Minnesota @ Cleveland (+4)
Can you say lock of the week! Cleveland is terrible. The season hasn’t started and everyone on Cleveland hates their coach. The fact that the starting QB wasn’t named until this week doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in Brady Quinn. They lost their 2nd best skilled player (Kellen “I am a Soldier” Winslow) and their best receiver still has a case of the dropsies. It’s hard to think of a move that improved any position on the team. Meanwhile Minnesota comes back more experienced and hungrier. While I’m wary of Brett Favre for a full season, anything is an upgrade over Tavaris Jackson. Peterson is a beast and it will be interesting to see how Harvin is utilized. On D, expect Minnesota to stuff Cleveland’s running game forcing Quinn to throw a few picks. This one won’t even be close.
Prediction: Minnesota 35 – Cleveland 10
Actual: Minnesota 34 – Cleveland 20 (W)
New York Jets @ Houston (-4.5)
I’m staying away from this game. Houston has been a trendy pick the past couple of years. DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams are beasts on D but the sure things end there. Is Steve Slaton an every down back? The Jets aren’t much better. While their LBs seem to be in good shape, can you really trust a rookie QB on the road in the 1st game? Gun to my head I’m taking the Jets and the points because 4.5 is just too many points to be giving for a team that hasn’t ever been to the playoffs.
Prediction: New York 23 – Houston 26
Actual: New York 24 – Houston 7 (W)
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-7)
Another game where the line scares me. I can absolutely see Indy blowing out the Jags because I hate Jacksonville’s offense. They’re starting two rookie tackles, have a weak receiving group and a non-impressive QB. Indy on the other hand has a suspect line and question marks everywhere except QB. There are too many unanswered questions to touch this game so take Jacksonville and the points.
Prediction: Jacksonville 13 – Indianapolis 17
Actual: Jacksonville 12 – Indianapolis 14 (W)
Detroit @ New Orleans (-13)
All Detroit jokes aside, 13 points is a lot to be giving. I know Brees puts up crazy passing stats, but he also throws a ton of picks. From the opening weekend of college football and the Pitt Tenn game, offenses are rusty in Week 1. The Saints D doesn’t scare anyone and the Lions still have Calvin Johnson. Did I mention that 13 points is a lot?
Prediction: Detroit 17 – New Orleans 28
Actual: Detroit 27 – New Orleans 45 (L)
Dallas @ Tampa Bay (+5.5)
Long QB competition, firing your OC 10 days before the 1st game, rookie head coach and loss of team leader don’t inspire a ton of confidence in Tampa. Romo should be focused to prove he doesn’t need TO. The Dallas backfield of Barber and Jones is scary (though for my personal fantasy league, I hope Barber gets the majority of carries and TDs) and Williams and Witten can play. I can’t think of a matchup where Tampa has an edge. I like Dallas by at least 10.
Prediction: Dallas 23 – Tampa Bay 10
Actual: Dallas 34 – Tampa Bay 21 (W)
Miami @ Atlanta (-4)
Not an interesting game to watch. The term “wildcat” might get more mention than Brett Favre’s comeback. It seems like Miami took advantage of a depleted AFC East and had an interesting gimmick with the Wildcat (see it’s starting already). Atlanta actually has some playmakers on offense and the defense should get better. Atlanta is home so that is almost worth 3 points right there. Still the teams are well coached and with this being week 1 I’m hesitant to give 4 points. Atlanta should win, but won’t cover (might be a push too).
Prediction: Miami 17 – Atlanta 20
Actual: Miami 7 – Atlanta 19 (L)
Kansas City @ Baltimore (-12.5)
Avert your eyes, this game will be U-G-L-Y you ain’t no alibi….UGLY!! There is nothing positive I can say about KC. In fact, if I were Cassel, I would claim injury to avoid the pounding coming from Baltimore’s D. Unlike the Det-NO game, take the Ravens and the points
Prediction: Kansas City 6 – Baltimore 31
Actual: Kansas City 24 – Baltimore 38 (W)
Philadelphia @ Carolina (+2.5)
The line has swung a lot this week. Earlier, Carolina was favored by 2. I’m having trouble seeing the love for Philly. The Eagles started out slowly last year, lost their long time and great D-Cordinator and Donovan is already in full inferiority complex mode. Carolina has one of the best 1-2 punches at RB, a top flight receiver and a pretty solid D. This game can totally come down to a last second FG.
Prediction: Philadelphia 17 – Carolina 19
Actual: Philadelphia 38 – Carolina 10 (L)
Washington @ New York Giants (-6.5)
Giants open again with Washington. Neither team has changed too much from the end of last year. The Skins flirted with bringing in a few QBs this offseason which doesn’t speak too highly for Jason Campbell. While the Skins broke the bank for Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall and drafted Brian Orakpo, can you say they are really that improved? For the Giants, they were completely discombobulated once Cheddar Plax was gone. Hakeem Nicks made some spectacular catches in college, but can he be consistent in the pros? It was disconcerting to see the shear number of drops the Giants receivers had in the preseason. Those drops are what makes me say that the Giants will win but will not cover.
Prediction: Washington 16 – New York 20
Actual: Washington 17 – New York 23 (W)
St. Louis @ Seattle (-7.5)
Seattle will start with a healthy Hassleback who should have already bought a gift for FA pickup TJ Housh(not spelling his full name). I expect a big year from TJ. According the draft experts, Seattle got the “surest” thing in LB Aaron Curry. St. Louis was awful last year and while Spagnoulo was great with the Giants, we have yet to see how he’ll do as a head coach and will definitely need time to get “his” type of players. A healthy Seattle at home is tough to go against.
Prediction: St. Louis 13 – Seattle 28
Actual: St. Louis 0 – Seattle 28 (W)
San Franciso @ Arizona (-6.5)
Arizona was oh so close to being the “defending super bowl champs” (which would have been very weird). A lackluster preseason has only perpetrated the notion of a super bowl hangover. Still, Arizona has a prolific offense which should get a boost from rookie Beanie Wells. Looking at SF, their QB and receivers don’t scare me (even if Crabtree signs in the last minute) and Frank Gore is no Peterson who can run against consistent 8 men fronts. I think Zona will turn the switch on for this opening game.
Prediction: San Francisco 16 – Arizona 27
Actual: San Francisco 20 – Arizona 16 (L)
Chicago @ Green Bay (-3.5)
This is a game that should be played in November and December. There is a lot of excitement building in Chicago. The Cry Baby, Greg Olsen, Matt Forte and a healthy LB group. Green Bay will boast a more mature and confident Aaron Rodgers and hopefully the return to form of Ryan Grant. The teams are evenly matched up and this game looks to be decided by a field goal either way. I see this being a late field goal by GB but not enough to cover the 3.5
Prediction: Chicago 24 – Green Bay 27
Actual: Chicago 15 – Green Bay 21 (L)
Buffalo @ New England (-10.5)
Another ugly game this week. Buffalo is already wreck and TO has barely started running his mouth. I would have loved to see the Giants or the Chargers sign TO, but Buffalo is the wrong team for him. Tom Brady is chomping at the bit to get back on the field. I expect huge numbers again from Brady, Moss and Welker as the AFC east is very weak. This game will be over by the 2nd quarter. New England’s defense worries me for a super bowl run, but I think the University of Florida would put up more points this year than the Bills.
Prediction: Buffalo 10 – New England 45
San Diego @ Oakland (-9.5)
It’s the Raiders (have you been paying attention since the draft). Nuff Said
Prediction: San Diego 31 – Oakland 13
Record 8-6













September 11th, 2009 at 8:27 am
Not a good start and GT crumbled vs Clemson to still win but not cover…jerks. They watched too much Clemson film and them emulated them.
Speaking of Clemson, where is the College Hottie?