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Fantasy football draft – What is the optimal strategy?

There are a lot of different draft strategies you can have going into your fantasy football draft. In recent years the optimal draft strategy was to pick a running back in the first two rounds of the draft. With the idea being that because running backs are generally the most consistent point getters in fantasy football you will stack your team with 2 of the best ones. However, this might not be the best idea with more and more teams turning to a running back by committee styled offense. Also, with the adoption of the wildcat offense will feature running backs are getting less carries these days than in years past. With this in mind I believe I have come up with the optimal draft strategy to take into your fantasy football draft based on your draft position. All strategies are based on a 10 team league.

Early draft position:
If you are drafting in spots 1 through 5 I think it is best to take a player from the following positions in this order.
Round 1 – RB You are taking a top 5 RB here. (Players to target) Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams,Matt Forte, Chris Johnson
Round 2 – RB Can get another top 10 RB here. (Players to target)Brandon Jacobs, Brian Westbrook, Ronnie Brown
Round 3 – WR You have to make sure to get a top 5 WR. (Players to target) Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith
Round 4 – QB The top 3 QBs should be off the board by this point. I like to select one from the second tier in this round. (Players to target)Aaron Rogers, Phillip Rivers,Tony Romo
Round 5 – TE Looking to land a top 3 TE here. (Players to target)JasonWitten, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez. Take another WR if those 3 are gone and grab a TE in round 6
Round 6 – WR Have to get your second WR before they are all gone. (Players to target)Braylon Edwards, Eddie Royal, Lee Evans
Round 7 on – Best Available
Look to target a def in round 10 or 11.

The reason we are taking a Running back with our first two picks here in early draft position is because of the way the snake draft works. In most online mock drafts the top WRs and QBs are being taken in the late 1st round and early 2nd round which will drop another top 10 fantasy RB into your lap when selecting in the first 5 spots. When the order snakes back around we get to pick early in the 3rd we are still getting a top notch WR to go with our two stud point getting RBs. In the 4th round you select a QB from what I call the second tier of quarterbacks. The top tier consists of Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. After that I think the next best group of QBs that are slightly better fantasy QBs than the rest of the league are Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo and Phillip Rivers. After those 6 players most of the QBs score the same amount of points and it does not really matter who you have on your squad. In round 5 we have to try and get one of the top TEs to make up for the fact that the rest of our WRs will be rather mediocre from here on out. We are looking to make up any lost points by our 2nd starting WR with this TE pick and it is why we will select one at this spot. Select your #2 WR in round 6. I would be happy getting Braylon Edwards or Lee Evans in this spot. From round 7 onwards select the best available player until round 10 when we will take a top 3 Def of Pitt, Baltimore, Minnesota.

Here is my strategy when drafting in late position, spots 6 through 10.
Late draft position:
Round 1 – RB (Players to target)Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Steven Jackson
Round 2 – WR (Players to target)Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Moss, Calvin Johnson
Round 3 – WR (Players to target)Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Terrell Owens.
Round 4 – RB (Players to target)Joseph Addai, Kevin Smith, Clinton Portis, Ryan Grant
Round 5 – TE Looking for that top 3 TE. (Players to target)Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez. If they are not available take a QB in this spot
Round 6 – QB (Players to target)Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Kurt Warner
Round 7 on – Best available
Target your def in round 10 so you can assure a top 3 def and make up a few points lost on your lower QB draft spot.

It is when drafting in a late position where are our new strategy of not selecting a running back in the first 2 rounds will be deployed. Just like the WRs I feel that outside of the top 5 running backs the next group of starting running backs can be interchangeable when it comes to fantasy football. You still want to get a top 10 RB with your first pick but when the draft snakes back around for round 2 we are going to hopefully select a top 3 WR. Look to pick up Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson in this round. Round 3 we will select another WR so we have a solid receiving corp instead of selecting a ho-hum RB here which would lead us to grabbing another mediocre WR in a later round and being stuck with an several average players on our team. Round 4 is where we will take our second starting running back. You should be able to get a decent starting running back here out of Addai, Kevin Smith, Clinton Portis or Ryan Grant. Again, in round 5 we are looking for that top tier TE to help make up some ground from our slightly weaker 2nd RB. In Round 6 we can take a QB and get a decent starter on a pass happy team. Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb or Kurt Warner should be available in this spot. For Round 7 on you will draft the best available player. Also, like the other draft positions you should target a top 3 def in round 10 so you can win the point battle at that position week in and week out.

I believe that using these two draft strategies will allow you to draft the strongest overall team based on your draft slot. When drafting in late position thinking outside of the traditional “running back with the first two picks” box is essential to building a winning fantasy football team this year. By drafting the top guys in other positions you should be able to overcome the lack of a steady point getting running back that the first picks of your draft will enjoy.

I hope you find these strategies helpful and give me some credit when you take home your leagues prize money.

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Comments

Comment from DraftMan
Time August 24, 2009 at 10:20 am

I think those are solid strategies. I also think that early (position 1 or 2) you could go with RB, WR, WR. Something AP, Reggie Wayne, Boldin is also a solid start.
Late position I think you can do something similar (depending on what RB falls to you) and have Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson and pair that with Ryan Grant/Kevin Smith. With more RBBC there are more “starting” RBs available later.

Comment from Gridiron Fanatic
Time August 24, 2009 at 1:43 pm

Thanks for the reply. This is certainly another strategy you can try out. I suggest going RB/RB in early draft position because I feel difference in snagging two top 10 RBs is far greater than getting 2 top 15 WRs. I just think the point differential between the 8th ranked RB and 14th ranked RB is much larger than the WRs for those ranks. I recommend doing some online mock drafts and tweaking your picks to see what kind of combinations of RBs and WRs you can get.

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