Gridiron Fanatics

St Petersburg Bowl

So yesterday was a bad start to the bowl season. Fresno State not only fails to cover 10.5 against Wyoming they forgot to win the game as well. Then in the second game Rutgers handled Central Florida rather easily and I’m quickly in the hole 0-2. But it’s ok there are 32 more games to go. I’m confident things will turn around.

The bad news is I’m just not sure if it will turn around with tonight’s game. I wish there was a way to wager on the O/U of number people that will watch this game. I’d set it at 500 and probably take the under. Really Southern Mississippi vs Middle Tennessee State? What a terrible match up of obscure teams. I guess it will give us something to flip to when the Brett Favre love gets out of hand on Sunday Night Football.

Anyways, since I know nothing about these two teams and am not going to pretend like I do. I am not going to waste my time analyzing stats to see who wins this match up. Southern Miss seems like the better team to me on paper so what the hell…

Pick:Southern Miss -3.5

Record: 0-2

St Petersburg Bowl

Central Florida and Rutgers square off in the St Petersburg Bowl. Rutgers star receiver Tim Brown is questionable for the game and listed as Day to Day. This is a big blow to Rutgers’ 99th ranked overall offense. Rutgers figures to struggle with the ground game against Central Florida’s above average rush defense. The potential loss of Brown will not help their cause in this game.

This will be a virtual home game for Central Florida as they have already sold their allotment of 14,000 tickets and expect to have 20,000 fans at the game. Add in the fact that being in the St Petersburg Bowl is a bit of a disappointment for Rutgers I think this gives UCF a decent adavantage in this game. I think Rutgers has the chance to come out flat in this game and play down to their competition.

I will take the points and UCF. The line opened at Rutgers -1 and had moved up to -2.5. You might want to wait and see if you can get UCF at +3 or +3.5 but the questionable status WR Brown might keep the lines where they are.

Pick: UCF +2.5

View more of my college football bowl picks.

New Mexico Bowl

The New Mexico Bowl kicks off the 2009 college football bowl season with the Fresno State Bulldogs facing the Wyoming Cowboys. While this is not the most exciting match up it should provide a fairly entertaining game.

FRESNO STATE OFFENSE vs WYOMING DEFENSE
Fresno State is 7th in total rushing and will run the ball very effectively against the 88th ranked rush defense.  Wyoming gives up 169 yards per game on the ground while Fresno gains 231 yards per game.  Also, Fresno State is #10 in time of possession holding the ball for 32min19sec on average.  I think with Fresno’s superior rushing attack they will keep Wyoming’s anemic offense off the field while putting points on the board.

WYOMING OFFENSE vs FRESNO STATE DEFENSE
Wyoming ranks as the 112th total offense.  They are 86th nationally in rush offense and 103rd in Passing offense.  Fresno State is also terrible on Defense ranking 97th in total defense, 111th in rush defense but 32nd in Pass Defense.  I see Wyoming falling behind early in this game and being forced to throw the ball to get back into it.  After a few three and outs Fresno will start open a sizable lead that I just do not see Wyoming being able to overcome.

PICK: Fresno State -10.5

View more of my college football bowl picks.

College football bowl games are quickly approaching and I couldn’t be more excited. While there are some real duds on the schedule this year (What’s that? you really want to watch Northern Illinois and South Florida play in Toronto?) there are a handful of games that promise to deliver some exciting football.

Here are some of the more exciting match ups on this year’s college football bowl schedule:

Nebraska(22) vs Arizona(20)

Can Suh replicate his Big 12 Champ Game performance? If so, AZ QB Nick Foles might be in for a long night.

Air Force vs Houston

After backing Houston a few times this year I’m pretty sure they do not believe in playing defense. There should be a ton of points in this game, the O/U is set at 62, which always makes for a fun game.

Louisiana State(12) vs Penn State(13)

Any time there is a chance a head coach can stroke out on the sidelines I’ll be watching and Joe Pa has a better than good chance. This is the first big matchup for the Big 10 to see if they can gain back a little respect from the national media.

Ohio State(8) vs Oregon(7)

What is New Years Day without the Rose Bowl? A must see for every college football fan.

Cincinnati(3) vs Florida(5)

How is Tim Tebow going to end his college career? With a win in the Orange Bowl or two straight losses?

Texas(2) vs Alabama(1)

You have to be excited about the National Championship game. This should be a good contest that matches a high power Texas offense with a stout Alabama defense.

In addition to these exciting games I also like a handful for sports betting purposes. The lines that have jumped out at me early on are:

LSU +2.5
Ga Tech -4
Auburn -7.5
Va Tech -4

Make sure to check back frequently as I will be providing a bowl game preview for every matchup on the board along with my picks against the spread.  Bookmark my site here and follow me on Twitter to receive all of my updates.  Let’s have a good bowl season and make a little money.

Sign up on Sportsbook.com and recieve up to $100 free!  Make sure to get your account set up before the games start on Saturday.

One of the best holidays of the year is finally upon us.  Thanksgiving is known for turkey, pumpkin pie, family and of course football!  This year’s slate of games is a little underwhelming as Oakland and Detroit are both involved.  But what do we do to make a boring football game more exciting? That’s right we bet on it!!

Green Bay Packers  -11 O/U 47.5 @ Detroit Lions  12:30pm

In case you haven’t been paying attention for the last 10 years Detroit is a terrible team.  In the late 90s and early 2000’s the Lions used to play at a higher level on Thanksgiving day and actually give their opponents a game.  This has not been the case lately as they have failed to cover on Thanksgiving day the last 5 years.  I expect more the same to happen this year as Green Bay has a good passing attack while Detroit’s secondary is non existent ranking 32nd in the NFL.  Green Bay has the 7th ranked Offense and Passing attacking in the NFL and Aaron Rodgers should feast on the Lions Thursday.  A large part of the Lions’ woes are a result of their inability to get pressure on the QB.  They only have 18 sacks on the season and rank 24th in that category.  This is a great thing for the Packers as they have struggled with pass protection all season long.  They will not need to worry about pass protection in this game though.  Throw in the fact that Lions’ QB Matt Stafford is unlikely to play and WR Calvin Johnson is banged up the Detroit Lions will struggle to get points on the board.  Lay the 11 pts and take Green Bay.

Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys -13.5 O/U 40 4:15pm

In the afternoon game we have the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Oakland Raiders.  The Raiders may have found some magic with Bruce Gradkowski replacing the horrible Jamarcus Russell at QB…but I doubt it.  Gradkowski’s career 52.9 Comp %, 11 TDs to 16 INTs and 59.9 Passer Rating seem to suggest that the Raiders will continue to struggle at the QB position.  The bad news for the Oakland Raiders is that Dallas comes in with the 7th best rushing defense in the league and this is what the Raiders do best.  When the Raiders fall behind they will be relying on Gradkowski to bring them back which is a scary thought.  My #1 rule with betting on football is do not take a shitty QB on the road.  Bruce fits that description.  On the other side of the ball Oakland sports the 30th ranked rushing defense in the league.  They gave up 119 yards to Bernard Scott last week.  I think Dallas’ trio of Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice will carve up Oakland’s defense all day where Romo does not have to rely on his sub par receiving corp.  I expect Dallas will win the turnover battle and come out fired up to maintain their NFC East division lead and handily beat the Oakland Raiders.  Lay the 13.5 and take the Cowboys.

New York Giants -6.5 O/U 42 @ Denver Broncos 8:20pm

In the late game of the day the New York Giants travel to Denver to take on the Broncos.  The Broncos are reeling after 4 straight losses to follow up their 6 straight wins.  Kyle Orton is banged up with foot injury and is probable for the game.  Since when did we decide Kyle Orton was a good quarterback?  Do we remember how bad he was in Chicago?  I think Denver is starting to be exposed for the real team that they are after their hot start.  In their last 4 games they have failed to score more that 17 points while giving up an average of 28 points.  Also, 3 of their wins are against Oakland, Cleveland and a last second miracle play by Brandon Stokely in the season opener against Cincinnati.  New York on the other hand stopped their own 4 game skid with an OT win over Atlanta last week where they came off a bye week.  I am looking for the Giants to keep the momentum going and pull out the W in Denver.  If the Giants can get back any of their defensive dominance they have displayed the last couple years I think they will win this game easily.  My pick is to lay the points and take New York -6.5.

Get in on all the action at Sportsbook.com.  Just don’t forget to give thanks to me when you go 3-0 this Thursday.

A new weekly post here at Gridironfanatics.com where we will give you the Champ and Chump from all the weekend’s action.

This weekend’s Champ is Detroit Lions’ QB Matt Stafford for his game winning TD pass win 0:00 on the clock and 1 good shouder.

I know the Lions are terrible and it was only their 2nd win of the season over even lowlier Cleveland but any player that dodges team doctors to get back onto the field with a separated shoulder to throw the game winning TD is a champ in my book.

This week’s Chump is none other than Captain Frontbutt himself, Charlie Weiss.

With losses to USC, Michigan, UConn and Navy this season I think it’s time to start updating that resume Charlie.  At least your prized QB didn’t get punched in the face while holding a purse…oh wait.

(Starting this week I will try to post some 5-6 team 6 point teaser I find plausible.  Odds are 4.5:1 and 6:1 respectively and all lines are after the 6 points are applied)

Kansas @ UTEP (-6.5)
North Carolina @ UConn (+1.5)
Pittsburgh @ Buffalo (+16.5)
TCU @ Virginia (-5)
UCLA @ Tennessee (-4)
USC @ Ohio State (-1)

Ok, so we got clobbered last week. Minnesota thanks for that stink bomb in the Carrier Dome. Apparently their D coordinator does not know the definition of the word “adjustment.” Syracuse screen passed them to death once they realized they were not going to be able to run the ball in the first half and that Greg Paulus does in fact suck at quarterback too.

This may be a little premature as we have the entire season ahead of us still but I am need of a morale boost. Stuart tell me everything is going to be ok.

Makes me feel better about myself already

On to this week’s college picks.

South Carolina at Georgia -7, Sept. 12th 7:05pm EST

South Carolina’s offense is terrible. The game against NC State last week was so terrible I forgot I even watched it. South Carolina won 7-3 for those of you who forgot as well. Athens is a tough place to play, especially at night. I expect a better performance out of Georgia QB Joe Cox since he won’t be flying in on his own quarantined jet with the flu. I think Georgia will pull away in the 3rd quarter and win this game by 14 or 17.

Kansas -12.5 at UTEP, Sept. 12th 7:30pm EST

UTEP got beat at home by Buffalo, who plays in the MAC by the way, as a 10.5 point favorite. UTEP struggles and gives up a ton of points when playing against a good spread passing attack. They lost 77-35 to Tulsa, 49-44 to Rice and 42-37 to Houston last year. Needless to say I expect Kansas to put up a lot of points in this game. If UTEP does not get their offense going in week 2 they are in for a blowout. I think Kansas goes up big and rolls to a 17 point win.

Smooth Jimmy Apollo is back again with another “Lock of the Week.”

Smooth Jimmy likes TCU and you should too

Texas Christian -11 at Virginia, Sept. 12th 3:30pm EST

Really Virginia? Williams and Mary? Really?? How can I back a D-I team that scores only 14 points against D-II Williams and Mary while only gaining 268 yards? TCU has a top notch defense and should hold Virginia to about the same total. I expect TCU to win the turnover margin which usually bodes well for double digit favorites. Lay the 11 points and take TCU.

YTD: 1-4 -3.3 units
Lock of the Week: 0-1 -1.1 units

Take advantage of Sportbook.com’s Half Juice Friday’s today. -105 odds on all football games. Also, take advantage of their deposit bonus where you can get a free $100 when you open an account.

Since we are all hoping for USC to thrash Ohio State, I give you the 2009 USC Song Girls:

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)
The defending champs (damn you Santio Holmes) open up their title defense against one of last year’s surprising teams.  For the Titans, I see two questions heading into the season.  The first being whether Kerry Collins can repeat his performance, especially with a still below average receiving group.  Another is the loss of space-eating DT Albert Haynesworth.  Pittsburgh is essentially returning the same team that won the super bowl and is hungry to get back on the field and start hitting again.  While 6.5 is a lot of points to be giving, I still like Pittsburgh to win by 7 or 8.
Prediction: Tennessee 16 – Pittsburgh 24
Actual: Tennessee 10 – Pittsburgh 13 (L)

Denver @ Cincinnati (-4)
There is quite a few things to be hopeful for in Cincinnati.  The primary thing is a healthy Carson Palmer.  However, there are a few question marks on offense for the Bungles.  How focused is Ochocinco? Has Chris Henry put his legal troubles behind him and is he ready to replace TJ?  Will Cedric Benson run like he did at the end of last year or fall back to his Chicago days?  Finally, does the hiring of Mike Zimmer really improve the D?  For Denver, can Kyle Orton/Chris Simms run an offense for 4 quarters?  How healthy is Moreno?  Will Brandon Marshall shut up and play?  With both teams afraid of playing defense I think the over (42.5) might be the safest best in this game.  I don’t like Denver this year but we are talking about the Bengals and 4 points is just too much for them to be giving another team.
Prediction: Denver 27 – Cincinnati 24
Actual: Denver 12 – Cincinnati 7 (W)

Minnesota @ Cleveland (+4)
Can you say lock of the week!  Cleveland is terrible.  The season hasn’t started and everyone on Cleveland hates their coach.  The fact that the starting QB wasn’t named until this week doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in Brady Quinn.  They lost their 2nd best skilled player (Kellen “I am a Soldier” Winslow) and their best receiver still has a case of the dropsies. It’s hard to think of a move that improved any position on the team.  Meanwhile Minnesota comes back more experienced and hungrier.  While I’m wary of Brett Favre for a full season, anything is an upgrade over Tavaris Jackson.  Peterson is a beast and it will be interesting to see how Harvin is utilized.  On D, expect Minnesota to stuff Cleveland’s running game forcing Quinn to throw a few picks.  This one won’t even be close.
Prediction: Minnesota 35 – Cleveland 10
Actual: Minnesota 34 – Cleveland 20 (W)

New York Jets @ Houston (-4.5)
I’m staying away from this game.  Houston has been a trendy pick the past couple of years.  DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams are beasts on D but the sure things end there.  Is Steve Slaton an every down back?  The Jets aren’t much better.  While their LBs seem to be in good shape, can you really trust a rookie QB on the road in the 1st game?  Gun to my head I’m taking the Jets and the points because 4.5 is just too many points to be giving for a team that hasn’t ever been to the playoffs.
Prediction: New York 23 – Houston 26
Actual: New York 24 – Houston 7 (W)

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-7)
Another game where the line scares me.  I can absolutely see Indy blowing out the Jags because I hate Jacksonville’s offense.  They’re starting two rookie tackles, have a weak receiving group and a non-impressive QB.  Indy on the other hand has a suspect line and question marks everywhere except QB.  There are too many unanswered questions to touch this game so take Jacksonville and the points.
Prediction: Jacksonville 13 – Indianapolis 17
Actual: Jacksonville 12 – Indianapolis 14 (W)

Detroit @ New Orleans (-13)
All Detroit jokes aside, 13 points is a lot to be giving.  I know Brees puts up crazy passing stats, but he also throws a ton of picks.  From the opening weekend of college football and the Pitt Tenn game, offenses are rusty in Week 1.  The Saints D doesn’t scare anyone and the Lions still have Calvin Johnson.  Did I mention that 13 points is a lot?
Prediction: Detroit 17 – New Orleans 28
Actual: Detroit 27 – New Orleans 45 (L)

Dallas @ Tampa Bay (+5.5)
Long QB competition, firing your OC 10 days before the 1st game, rookie head coach and loss of team leader don’t inspire a ton of confidence in Tampa.  Romo should be focused to prove he doesn’t need TO.  The Dallas backfield of Barber and Jones is scary (though for my personal fantasy league, I hope Barber gets the majority of carries and TDs) and Williams and Witten can play.  I can’t think of a matchup where Tampa has an edge.  I like Dallas by at least 10.
Prediction: Dallas 23 – Tampa Bay 10
Actual: Dallas 34 – Tampa Bay 21 (W)

Miami @ Atlanta (-4)
Not an interesting game to watch.  The term “wildcat” might get more mention than Brett Favre’s comeback.  It seems like Miami took advantage of a depleted AFC East and had an interesting gimmick with the Wildcat (see it’s starting already).  Atlanta actually has some playmakers on offense and the defense should get better.  Atlanta is home so that is almost worth 3 points right there.  Still the teams are well coached and with this being week 1 I’m hesitant to give 4 points.  Atlanta should win, but won’t cover (might be a push too).
Prediction: Miami 17 – Atlanta 20
Actual: Miami 7 – Atlanta 19 (L)

Kansas City @ Baltimore (-12.5)
Avert your eyes, this game will be U-G-L-Y you ain’t no alibi….UGLY!!  There is nothing positive I can say about KC.  In fact, if I were Cassel, I would claim injury to avoid the pounding coming from Baltimore’s D.  Unlike the Det-NO game, take the Ravens and the points
Prediction: Kansas City 6 – Baltimore 31
Actual: Kansas City 24 – Baltimore 38 (W)

Philadelphia @ Carolina (+2.5)
The line has swung a lot this week.  Earlier, Carolina was favored by 2.  I’m having trouble seeing the love for Philly.  The Eagles started out slowly last year, lost their long time and great D-Cordinator and Donovan is already in full inferiority complex mode.  Carolina has one of the best 1-2 punches at RB, a top flight receiver and a pretty solid D.  This game can totally come down to a last second FG.
Prediction: Philadelphia 17 – Carolina 19
Actual: Philadelphia 38 – Carolina 10 (L)

Washington @ New York Giants (-6.5)
Giants open again with Washington.  Neither team has changed too much from the end of last year.  The Skins flirted with bringing in a few QBs this offseason which doesn’t speak too highly for Jason Campbell.  While the Skins broke the bank for Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall and drafted Brian Orakpo, can you say they are really that improved?  For the Giants, they were completely discombobulated once Cheddar Plax was gone.  Hakeem Nicks made some spectacular catches in college, but can he be consistent in the pros?  It was disconcerting to see the shear number of drops the Giants receivers had in the preseason.  Those drops are what makes me say that the Giants will win but will not cover.
Prediction: Washington 16 – New York 20
Actual: Washington 17 – New York 23 (W)

St. Louis @ Seattle (-7.5)
Seattle will start with a healthy Hassleback who should have already bought a gift for FA pickup TJ Housh(not spelling his full name).  I expect a big year from TJ.  According the draft experts, Seattle got the “surest” thing in LB Aaron Curry.  St. Louis was awful last year and while Spagnoulo was great with the Giants, we have yet to see how he’ll do as a head coach and will definitely need time to get “his” type of players.  A healthy Seattle at home is tough to go against.
Prediction: St. Louis 13 – Seattle 28
Actual: St. Louis 0 – Seattle 28 (W)

San Franciso @ Arizona (-6.5)
Arizona was oh so close to being the “defending super bowl champs” (which would have been very weird).  A lackluster preseason has only perpetrated the notion of a super bowl hangover.  Still, Arizona has a prolific offense which should get a boost from rookie Beanie Wells.  Looking at SF, their QB and receivers don’t scare me (even if Crabtree signs in the last minute) and Frank Gore is no Peterson who can run against consistent 8 men fronts.  I think Zona will turn the switch on for this opening game.
Prediction: San Francisco 16 – Arizona 27
Actual: San Francisco 20 – Arizona 16 (L)

Chicago @ Green Bay (-3.5)
This is a game that should be played in November and December.  There is a lot of excitement building in Chicago.  The Cry Baby, Greg Olsen, Matt Forte and a healthy LB group.  Green Bay will boast a more mature and confident Aaron Rodgers and hopefully the return to form of Ryan Grant.  The teams are evenly matched up and this game looks to be decided by a field goal either way.  I see this being a late field goal by GB but not enough to cover the 3.5
Prediction: Chicago 24 – Green Bay 27
Actual: Chicago 15 – Green Bay 21 (L)

Buffalo @ New England (-10.5)
Another ugly game this week.  Buffalo is already wreck and TO has barely started running his mouth.  I would have loved to see the Giants or the Chargers sign TO, but Buffalo is the wrong team for him.  Tom Brady is chomping at the bit to get back on the field.  I expect huge numbers again from Brady, Moss and Welker as the AFC east is very weak.  This game will be over by the 2nd quarter.  New England’s defense worries me for a super bowl run, but I think the University of Florida would put up more points this year than the Bills.
Prediction: Buffalo 10 – New England 45

San Diego @ Oakland (-9.5)
It’s the Raiders (have you been paying attention since the draft).  Nuff Said
Prediction: San Diego 31 – Oakland 13

Record 8-6